Post-Debate Analysis: Ted Cruz Emerges Victorious While Donald Trump Surprises

By Noah Lieberman

Just like last month’s debate and just as many predicted, tonight’s debate was only ever going to be won by one of two candidates, Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz. Though each candidate on stage had their moments in the spotlight, the market never wavered, holding these two far above the rest of the crowd (though Christie and Trump both made runs at double-digits). More importantly, the market never wavered on its ordering of the two candidates, holding the Florida senator far above his Texan counterpart.

The two largely avoided each other for the night, with Cruz being more occupied in fending off attacks from Trump than anything else. But at just past 11 PM, already leading by double digits on the market, Rubio pulled out all the stops and began a full assault on Cruz, critiquing his record on everything from defense spending to pandering and flip-flopping for Iowans. The risk proved to be too much for Rubio, who allowed Cruz the opportunity to respond harshly without it seeming overly cruel or unprovoked. Cruz built on this with a strong closing statement after the break, pulling to within seven points by the end of the night, his smallest deficit of the day.

This error would prove to not only be Rubio’s undoing on the market, but also the final vote, where he not only did not win, but failed to even claim sole possession of second place. Senator Rubio finished tied with Governor Chris Christie and, surprisingly, Donald Trump, who all ended the night with 20% of our focus group’s vote. The biggest news out of these results is that Donald Trump’s bravado and swagger finally earned him some respect on the market, which was quite a surprise given his lackluster night on the market, complete lack of votes in past debates, and the barrage of boos he faced from the raucous South Carolina audience tonight. We’ll have more on what this means for future markets and perhaps the state of the race in our full analysis next week. Governor Jeb Bush earned a small amount of love from the focus group, a solid 10 percent.

But the big winner tonight was indeed Senator Cruz, who took the remainder of the focus group vote and first place for the second straight debate. This should lead him to continued success in Iowa, where he is possibly poised to win the first vote in this primary campaign. Our focus group praised how we handled himself against all attacks, and against Trump in particular, which should bode well for him as he faces increased challenges from his rivals as the new man to beat in the Hawkeye State.

The big takeaway tonight is that even though the market was quiet for much of the night, Ted Cruz was by far the best performer of the last twenty minutes. If you’re waiting until the last minute to place your bet on the night’s ultimate winner, it isn’t always wisest to go with the candidate on top. Go with the candidate with the most momentum, who will be leaving the freshest impression in the focus group’s mind.

Ballotcraft Portfolio

End of Debate: 12,125 (+2,125)

End of Night: 18,500 (+8,500)

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Post-Debate Analysis: Cruz’s Aggressive Strategy Pays Off

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By Noah Lieberman

Ballotcraft is a fantasy politics game (think fantasy football, but for politics). Play against your friends and win by best predicting what’s going to happen in upcoming elections. Sign up and play here: www.ballotcraft.com.

With the most recent Republican debate concluded just moments ago, let’s take a look at how the night developed on the BallotCraft market and what that means for the future of the campaign.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio entered the debate in an enviable position: he led the rest of the field by a mile, with seemingly no possibility of being toppled. And for the first hour of the debate it looked as though that this would remain the state of the race, as the infighting between the other candidates kept him looking presidential and on top of the market. More importantly, it kept other candidates who had a chance at dethroning him from coming close, as the outsiders trying to solidify support couldn’t speak long enough to make their case. By the time we were one hour in, he had a 30 point lead over the next closest competitor, at 46 percent to Texas Senator Ted Cruz’s 16 percent.

However, as the night progressed and questioning began to focus on the leading candidates, Cruz began to break away from the rest of the pack. Though Donald Trump had put in his best performance of the campaign by staying steady at 11%, Cruz made the big statements and fought enough against the moderators and competitors to distinguish himself as the clear second-place candidate. From there on out it was a slow-burning battle between the two senators, with Cruz gradually gaining ground from the other candidates while Rubio declined even more slowly. Rubio held a 23 point lead at 10:00, a 20 point lead 15 minutes later, and a ten point lead ten minutes after that. The two candidates largely stayed out of each other’s way, and the market was slow to react for that very reason.

That is until the two came into direct conflict over immigration. Cruz and Rubio had the most memorable battle of the night over amnesty, slamming each other over their past positions. Though the audience didn’t seem to favor one over the other, the market clearly thought Cruz the victor and he shot up past his Floridian counterpart to a 44 to 23 lead, his first of the night. The lead continued to build as the traders had time to reflect on the exchange, peaking at a 28 point advantage for Senator Cruz. Though that lead slightly receded following the next commercial break, Cruz clearly came out on top. From there the market bent slightly as each candidate spoke, granting Rubio a few points when he talked about military spending, and a few for Cruz as he spoke on his fellow candidates. Closing remarks brought little change as well as all nine candidates stuck mostly to their talking points, with the prices heading into closing had Rubio at just over 25 and Cruz at 52 percent.­

When the final votes of our focus group were cast, they echoed the market’s sentiment: Cruz won over Rubio by a healthy, though still competitive, margin, 43% to 28%. Fiorina, Christie, and Paul also received votes, though not enough to think they are suddenly relevant in these debate markets again. This clearly indicates that Cruz vs. Rubio is the outsider/insider matchup to watch, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the rest of the debates, and perhaps most of the primaries, were only won by one of these two candidates.

Want to add to the conversation? Join the discussion at www.reddit.com/r/ballotcraft

Debate Preview: Rubio Favored To Repeat, But Outsiders Loom Large

GOP Presidential Debate In Simi Valley

By Noah Lieberman

Ballotcraft is a fantasy politics game (think fantasy football, but for politics). Play against your friends and win by best predicting what’s going to happen in upcoming elections. Sign up and play here: www.ballotcraft.com.

The final Republican debate of 2015 is just hours away, with nine candidates ready to go on the main stage in Las Vegas. That means it is time to start looking seriously at the candidates and storylines at play tonight in our fantasy politics market and deciding how your strategy will change depending on the way the night develops. Each candidate carries unique expectations into this debate, but in the end only one can be declared our winner. Here are the three biggest things to keep in mind while trading tonight.

Rubio’s Momentum Holds, But Will It Carry Him?

Once again we enter a Republican debate with a clear favorite in the market, and once again that candidate is Marco Rubio. He’s once again secured nearly half of the total market share and looks to be a shoo-in for the top spot at the end of the night. However, the question we have to ask again is how much higher can his price actually rise by the end of the night. Last debate, the answer to that question was a resounding yes, as his stock climbed all the way up to 72 percent before the night was over. A good night for Rubio became even better as he edged out Texas Senator Ted Cruz for the focus group’s honors of winning debater.

But two things stand in Rubio’s way as he aims to secure yet another victory on the Ballotcraft market. First, his past successes and rising poll numbers may hurt him in the focus group. Rubio has seen quite the rise since the last debate, which took place over a month ago, as he essentially gained control of the moderate, establishment wing of his party. Our focus groups judge candidates based on how much they’ve improved their odds at the end of the night, and there is certainly less ground for Rubio to gain tonight than there was a month ago. Sure, he hasn’t quite taken the lead in any states yet, but his increased media presence and sudden status as establishment frontrunner may keep him from paying off at the end of the night. Secondly, tonight’s debate is hosted by CNN, who didn’t exactly wow me (or the nation) with their moderating ability in the last debate. They allowed the pushier, attention-grabbing candidates to rise to the top, and it resulted in Rubio’s only poor showing of the campaign season, a loss to Carly Fiorina. They’ve upped the moderator quality for this debate, with Wolf Blitzer holding the reins this time around, but the sheer number of candidates should be cause for concern for the typically reserved Rubio. Still, these are merely hypotheticals that likely won’t bring any substantive harm to the young Senator’s chances. I’d say an investment in Rubio will give you some payoff by the end of the night, though it might not be the best option to win your league.

Trump, Fiorina, And Cruz Compete For Outsider Share

Aside from Rubio, only three candidates look poised to make a run at the top spot on our market based on their current standing, and all three represent the most unpredictable wing of this GOP field. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz have all had their moments to shine in the media, but each are currently eclipsed by Rubio on the market and face vastly different circumstances heading into this debate.

Trump, the perennial frontrunner who has astounded political junkies for the better part of the year with his continued success, comes in yet again with odds that seem simultaneously too low and too high. One could argue that the man who has seen poll numbers in the mid-thirties for months has no chance of improving his standing in the race. But as we draw ever closer to the first ballots cast in Iowa, maybe Trump’s continued domination of the news cycle is all he needs to put this thing away, and nothing gets Trump coverage like these debates.

Fiorina, meanwhile, has fallen from her status as Trump’s most likely challenger to yet another candidate on the verge of irrelevancy. Debates have been her lifeblood in the past, but after similar performances have led to worse and worse results, perhaps the market has wised up to her game. I think her current double-digit price has a lot to do with her performance in the last CNN debate, where she blew away the competition, and may go down if Blitzer exercises some more control over the affairs than his predecessor. I don’t expect her price to drop rapidly or significantly during the night, but I’ll be shocked if she winds up on top.

Finally, Ted Cruz has rocketed to the top of Iowa polls after a string of high-profile social conservative endorsements. A strong debate performance would easily solidify his status as contender, but that may be hard in a free-for-all debate with such a large target on his back. Cruz vastly outperformed his market price in the final vote for last week’s debate, making him perhaps a stealthy buy to win big at the end of the night. Though his staunchly conservative message didn’t translate well with traders (his stock fluttered around 12 points all night), he nearly pulled off the upset and beat Rubio in our focus group vote. So even if Cruz isn’t a good buy during the debate, don’t be afraid to pick up a few low-priced shares at the end of the night if he’s stayed on message and gotten the audience on his side.

Crowded Stage Leaves Plenty Of Room For Surprises

Once again, I end with a warning about this ridiculously crowded GOP field and all of the unpredictability that brings to tonight’s affairs. With 9 candidates all fighting for the limited airtime, expect those on the bubble like Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to go all out in their attempts to get back into the spotlight. Christie in particular will be looking to swing big; a crucial endorsement in New Hampshire has revitalized his campaign, but his sagging national numbers are keeping out of the discussion for the final choice of the establishment. A big win tonight, especially one in which he eclipses the rising Rubio, could be the difference between his campaign going the distance or ending in February.

Rounding out the debate stage are Ben Carson, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush, all of whom are on the decline and desperate to find their way back to success. However, all three have more reserved personalities that could be a hindrance when trying to find success on the primetime stage. Don’t put faith in these three to deliver you a win, even if they do dazzle with the occasional one-liner. They’ll be more of a factor just by keeping the other candidates from taking shots at Rubio and knocking him off of his impressive position.